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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  October 17, 2014 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT

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>> china. >> and apple pay. >> and the launch of apple pay on monday. so look out for those especially annoying checkout lines. that does it for us. thank you so much to the panel and evan. >> my pleasure. >> my pleasure. >> i love talking about how wrong i am. >> "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square, this is "fast money". a volatile week on wall street mercifully comes to ap he san e. the s&p still posting its fourth week of losses. even oil coming back today. posting its third straight week of losses. so can you trust this bounce? steve grasso, what did you say?
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>> i don't know. ask pete. if you look at the 200 day moving average, it's 1906 currently right now. the last time we broke the 200 day, it was for a week. seven days. that a brings us out to next wednesday that we need to bounce over it. creature of habit, but i think we can say below it for a couple more days. if we stay below it longer than wednesday, i think it's a trend change. >> and we got news moodity's has downgraded russia. >> and normally downgrade of a solve rip countvereign country,. but given the currency has been under pressure, this could have a big impact. so to me, i don't think you can trust this yet for several reasons. one, look at the iwm. that rolled over today. high yield bonds rolled over again today. we had a fantastic day today. but the largest point gains in the dow, over time, have come during bear markets. so we had a phenomenal day. best day of the year in the dow.
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i just would not trust it yet. we also have japan has issues coming up. we have europe that is still a problem. so for me, i don't see how you can trust this with all these negative catalysts. >> we like to talk about leading indicators. the russell 2,000, in today's session alone, a 20 point swing which is about 2% top to bottom. terrible price action. >> and i don't know whether we trust this bounce or not. it's been about technicals and ebola. those have been the two headlines. yes, we got this great snap back today, but the snap back came for the right reason i think in certain names because of the fundamental story. when you look at what goldman reported, bank of america reported, delta reported, when you look at all of these different reports, we actually have the -- finally some color around some of these names. those names did move to the up side today we so we moved back
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to the fundamentals. >> so you don't trust the bounce. >> i thought the move down was way overdone. we had issues we needed to face and leading indicators peaked in july. but it didn't mean we need to be worried about the move to 1700 at this point. i do think what we got was a core of central banks saying all the right things and, yes, when politicians start panicking, markets stop panics and that's kind of what happened. so i don't think we have to say we're going back to where we were. i think the market was oversold. russia is going to be probably up on monday. i don't think this news is significant at all. i think a lot of it has been priced in. if we look at the trades that actually worked for the last three days, you get a few more days there. >> when you say oil is oversold, i think the roe reason was liquidation. when you look at the way oil
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traded, xl e-traded at the times of the day when it sold off, that's electrliquidation. >> yes, maybe we hit a very short term bottom, but what oil is telling you is that the demand isn't there anymore. that's the bigger picture. >> what the ceos and companies are telling us is that there is still demand. we're hearing it from -- >> but that's what their job is to tell you that there still is a demand out there for oil. but we always say it prices truth. and if you look at how precipitous oil has naul fallen can't argue with that. >> what is the point? global growth suddenly overnight has gone straight downhill? >> global growth has been slowing for a long time. just the market cares now. that's a big change.
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that is a sentiment change and i think it's a permanent change. >> retail sales number doesn't move the treasury market 30 bips. oil didn't change -- demand did not change. supply has changed. opec needs to change. >> on a macro level, we sold off roughly 10% off the s&p. so when you said it was overdone on the sell side being i think you're correct. but once we got to that level of down 10%, it really felt like guy said everyone stop, let's see if they rally. now they have rallied. a week out, let's see where they are. >> whether or not you believe this bounce, it is definitely a tradable bounce. so let's get to our tactical play book, find out which trades you should be looking to make. >> let's make rational calls on stock violations. nike, a stock i'm long. but if it gets back to 90, this
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is where it gapped up after the last numbers and i thought that was expensive. the complaints that are valid, companies are trading into new valuation paradigms. in some cases they're warranted, but at 90, you sell that down. i would have sold it a month ago and did it sell some right after those numbers. >> i think with this move is some liquidation. so i think it's a false move to the down side. at least to the extreme levels. and the 21% movement i think is way overdone. if you look at a five year chart, these are the lefts where defini it gets to. back up at 75, it's sellable. look at the insiders, that's exactly what insiders have been doing over the last couple of years. buying it near the 50s, selling it in the 70s. >> mobile eye is something that really was a sell on the news type of event with the d unveiled by tesla. i'm playing it for the 9 million cars that gm puts out.
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they're in those. they're in bmw. i think you buy it right here. >> sell something and it will be real estate. five years of asset price inflation. in my view, that process is starting to go into reverse. so you do not want to be in real estate. even monday morning, i'd sell it short. >> administration officials confirming today the first ever ebola czar to be appointed by president obama to stop the spread of the deadly disease. let's bring in meg turrell with the latest on this. >> that's right, we're hearing that president obama is naming ron claim, former chief of staffer. so belt way insider to take over the ebola response. the cdc getting grilled on a hearing on capitol hill about mistakes made in dallas, about hospital preparedness and a lot of calls for travel bans for
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flights coming in, passengers who originated in west africa. and this is a health care worker that we've learned handled some samples from thomas eric duncan getting on a cruise ship and actually leaving the united states. that person apparently is still on that cruise ship. it's somewhere near next come. suppo mexico. i it's been 19 days so it's unlikely she has ebola, but she is if isolation. and amber vinson, originally they were just checking with the passengers on the flight she took back from cleveland, and now they're looking at the one she took out. so a lot of fears spreading about how far this is going outside of dallas. but they're still really trying to warn that we only have three people with ebola right now. >> and ebola czar will make people feel better. >> what is interesting, he doesn't have a medical
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background, but we have all the folks with medical back grounds working endly and now somebody is at the top coordinating the response. >> what is the news with the treatments? >> there is interesting news. yesterday in the hearing somebody from the fda said that every patient who has been treated with ebola received an investigation investigational product. the fd after the isn't budging on explaining what that means. dr. fauci couldn't disclose. but if they received drugs, they're making decisions pretty quickly about the nurses. and of course chimerix has gotten the go ahead to start its phase two trial in the united states and europe. not yet in west africa. but it should give an indication pretty quickly. >> we got data about ser rev
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take. >> and that data had been published in august. so the drug looked to be safe. but it was old. >> if the headlines get ket wil headwinds? >> and i think it can provide tup opportunity. we focused on the fundamentals. when you look at the fundamentals, i like the airlines and every one of these airlines. i think that is a tradeoff of this unfortunate news with ebola. that i don't think will spread to the points that will absolutely be a concern for the airlines. >> carnival, how did they do, negative yields. but some was due to mexico. i think these guys have been right in terms of the news will
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get worse. you should be short term buyers of this news if you can hold the stock long term. >> major bellwethers all reporting earnings next week. we'll tell you how to position your portfolio before the announceme announcement. and is netflix dead money? that's coming up next. introducing synchrony financial. bringing new meaning to the word, partnership. banking. loyalty. analytics. synchrony financial. engage with us. this guy could take down your entire company.h? stay with me. on thursday a hamster video goes online. on friday it goes viral - a network choking phenomenon. why do you care? he's on the same cloud as your business. the more hits he gets, the slower your business may get.
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you might know this. taylor swift. >> yeah, i'm a big taylor swift. sure. >> of course you are. >> why wouldn't i be. >> apple and ibm monday, yahoo! tuesday, microsoft thursday. so kick it off with apple. >> when we look at what really happened on the watch, not only in the fall, but recently some of the information was put out there by the new ipads and so forth, i look at this as nothing but positives and i think there is actually a lot of room going forward in terms of asian markets. i think that will be huge.
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apple has sold off, broke through the 50 day. i think that is a little concerning. but i think numbers will be absolutely incredible. >> do we need a benign tape in order for this to go higher? >> we probably do. apple has done fairly well. relative strength has been fantastic. so in the past, you haven't needed it, but i just -- the taken now has been so aggressive to the down side that i do position you'll need a benign to up take to getting a se acceler. >> it's inversely correlateded. >> it's clean. >> it's flush with cash. >> when the market does better, apple flattens out. so if the market sells off, it's treated like utility. >> it's a safe. >> a safer haven. >> good point. >> ibm. tim. >> first of all, i'd rather -- start on the technicals. the stock is really right back to a level 179 it bounced
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between 170, 180, you have major support. we think the yupd lnk think thes service is improving. at best you're neutral. and at worse playing down side arriving. you're playing where this breaks technical levels and you could go after it. >> china is a big issue for ibm. has been in the past. i know they're in different businesses, but the sudden slowdown in the chinese end markets that drive about down. it down. >> i look it as a safe play. >> the thing you have to be careful withism bm is the buy back. we all know it's been financial engineering working. so next week, i don't think you have to buy ibm into the print. if you look -- if you see free cash flow starting to fall
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that's going to be a huge problem. >> sunday liyou sound like crus. >> some would say lucky you. >> and microsoft. >> well, here's one i won't be so crusty on because everybody knows that we have the end of the upgrade, right? and the upgrade cycles down. but microsoft has really taken a hit, bounced off of 42. so i think a lot of the bad news is probably priced into the stock. i wouldn't buy it ahead of earnings, but if you can't keep your finger off the buy button, use 42. >> jon fortt has an interview with satya nadella on monday. >> and that's where they have the margins and growth and i'm still excited about the stock. >> so yahoo!. that's you, grasso.
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>> that was supposed to be an dramatic pause. >> wake up. >> every wants to see what they're going to do with the cash. $40 is the line in the sand for this one. i'm still long in the name. >> i think this is a stock during the turmoil of the last couple weeks you you got the opportunities where people after ali baba, new valuation, maybe ali baba takes them out. this is all relatively good news for the stock. i think at this valuation, it's never been more interesting when we know where ali baba is. >> pete, you're watching ford. >> yeah, the just up side october 14 1/2 calls expiring october extend the tile. only 21 cents the price they're paying. look for up side. reporting earnings the 24th. if it they're right, these
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should perform. coming up next, the netflix debate. should you side with mark cuban? we take a deeper dive right after this.
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with our new multi health wellness line. and see how one small change can lead to good things. time for pops and droppers. a pop for dollar tree. >> dollar tree one of those dollar stores that -- well, sorry. one of the dollar stores that walmart was eating their lunch. no longer seems to be the case. looks like walmart is on the wrong he said of this. i would take profits. >> got back on track. good for you. big pop for ak steel. pete. >> $10 price target and they're talking about $2 in earnings by 2016. steel company, yeah.
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it's going higher. that's the pop. >> big drop for urban outfitters. >> they have been battling. and all the way back to their august 2012 low here. so i would not an seller at these levels. you can dabble in it, but you want to buy it by 10% to 10 5%. >> spritz. >> one name out of the big rally was netflix, continuing to slide after posting disappointing results in after hours news that hbo is launching a stand alone oig service. mark cuban explained why he's buying on the dips. >> you look at the competitors and this eat's the best thing t could possibly happen. every time somebody looks at buying hbo online over the top are or cbs on theline over tlin
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somebody will have a conversation with them. >> so will competition help or hurt? john, you brought the goods in terms of the information on hbo and show time and what they could possibly charge. >> first of all, as far as mark cuban goes, it's not like warren buffett bought the stock. he's done great things for the and a half vehicles, but there are fundamental reasons to be worried. some analysts say the subscriber enough, they whiffed. it was bad. they were talking 1.3 million and came in under a million. >> so they went in short. >> after hours, maybe it started to fall. but these guys still hold the position today. they weren't thrilled. but what at the poithey pointed, it could be a sign that the model is really in trouble. these guys have a very high turn rate. so numbers are way higher than
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hbo's. and a lot of people in the country have already had netflix and many there aren't that many potential customers left. if they have had it, they tried it, they won't want it again. and i do disagree with cuban on competition being a good thing. i think it's a bad thing. and we'll probably see showtime, stars come in. and netflix doesn't really have good movies. they have originals, but hbo will come in with fox, universal, warner brothers, stars would have season any owioig, dez any. so i think competition is bad. >> i think the concern is netflix did it try to implement the price increase and we saw what happened. subscriber growth was not there. so to your point about the incremental user, maybe they hit that limit where you know what, a buck more a month and that will turn people away. >> if a buck is -- if a buck is enough to turn people away, think about what it will be like when there are more competitors. >> and with all due respect to
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mark cuban if you happen to be watching, make you a couple bad trades in the past. >> one of the last time that's did come on,you a couple bad trades in the past. >> one of the last time that's did come on, it was the facebook ipo. bought it and i think he had sold it a month later. now, we all make bad trades. bk makes them all the time. but on netflix, the only thing i break with cuban on is that they should sell this company. this is aol. netflix should sell to apple and go on. the business model is broken. if a dollar is a problem be for your customers, you got a bad business model. >> john, allege good to sways g. time for the final trade. >> great multinationals. another one of my trades could have been biageo. take a look now. >> pete. >> i like these quality names. goldman sachs is going higher. >> steve. >> ford.
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it will need the overall market to perform better. >> brian kelly. >> you make hey when the sun shines and you you buy puts. >> that does it for us here. we'll see you back here monday at 5:00 for more fast. don't move yet, options actions starts right after this break. (receptionist) gunderman group. gunderman group is growing. getting in a groove. growth is gratifying. goal is to grow. gotta get greater growth. i just talked to ups. they got expert advise, special discounts, new technologies. like smart pick ups. they'll only show up when you print a label and it's automatic. we save time and money. time? money?
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this is "options action". tonight -- >> i'm going to kill the bear. i'm going to kill the bear! >> after a huge bounce, some traeders are calling the correction over. but we have a stunning chart that could get the bears roaring again. we'll show to you. plus, iprotection. a way to protect your apple shares ahead of monday's earnings and it costs less than $2. >> that's $2. >> we'll break it down. and down for the count. we'll tell you why next week's amazon earnings could break

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